* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972010 07/19/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 36 39 42 46 51 56 61 64 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 36 39 42 46 41 41 44 44 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 28 28 27 26 26 29 30 33 37 41 SHEAR (KT) 22 20 24 28 33 18 21 13 16 5 8 10 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 5 7 8 8 7 2 2 1 0 -3 -5 1 SHEAR DIR 265 259 258 254 274 284 287 284 272 295 258 115 74 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.8 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 149 148 149 155 159 160 166 163 160 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 144 142 141 139 138 144 147 148 153 149 145 137 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 62 67 66 63 62 67 58 59 54 53 52 50 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -10 -12 -22 -34 0 -7 14 13 27 14 13 -1 200 MB DIV 38 42 48 46 31 38 16 16 2 5 -1 2 8 LAND (KM) 358 250 201 211 228 174 180 112 12 9 22 38 45 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.6 20.1 20.4 20.7 21.3 21.5 21.6 21.5 21.5 21.8 22.3 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 62.4 63.8 65.1 66.4 67.6 70.1 72.3 74.6 76.8 78.8 80.7 82.5 84.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 12 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 68 60 62 56 58 65 74 76 0 4 110 2 79 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 20. 25. 30. 34. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 8. 11. 14. 17. 21. 26. 31. 36. 39. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972010 INVEST 07/19/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 60.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972010 INVEST 07/19/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972010 INVEST 07/19/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)