* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972010 07/19/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 48 53 60 68 73 78 82 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 48 41 34 45 50 48 56 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 27 29 27 27 36 46 57 68 SHEAR (KT) 14 19 23 19 14 21 11 10 4 6 14 12 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 9 8 8 6 2 -2 2 -3 -1 -3 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 276 268 276 287 266 283 252 258 76 50 37 355 70 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.3 29.6 29.8 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 149 149 149 157 162 166 169 167 165 163 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 143 141 141 140 146 152 154 156 154 151 149 142 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 63 62 62 63 63 58 58 54 51 48 47 48 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 5 6 6 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 13 5 -2 5 20 7 26 24 39 17 19 4 15 200 MB DIV 58 64 54 35 41 2 23 -1 7 13 6 -8 6 LAND (KM) 118 116 158 112 88 97 46 -43 -5 52 54 -11 130 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.6 19.9 20.2 20.5 20.7 20.8 20.8 21.0 21.3 21.7 22.3 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 65.1 66.3 67.5 68.7 69.9 72.2 74.4 76.5 78.4 80.2 82.1 83.7 85.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 9 9 9 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 67 62 58 64 65 78 57 46 4 108 67 39 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 20. 26. 31. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 23. 28. 35. 43. 48. 53. 57. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972010 INVEST 07/19/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 63.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972010 INVEST 07/19/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972010 INVEST 07/19/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)