* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972010 07/20/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 39 47 54 58 67 72 79 82 84 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 39 47 54 40 33 41 41 47 48 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 28 30 33 29 28 36 46 52 63 SHEAR (KT) 11 15 13 10 17 13 14 7 3 9 1 1 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 7 4 7 7 -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 -2 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 252 289 295 269 258 269 210 233 103 2 267 135 216 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.4 29.6 29.8 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 149 149 150 158 162 165 169 167 165 165 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 143 140 139 140 148 150 153 155 155 152 150 147 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -52.5 -52.9 -51.9 -52.4 -52.2 -52.6 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 12 11 12 700-500 MB RH 65 61 63 64 62 59 56 51 47 47 48 48 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 7 10 11 12 12 11 11 9 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 23 15 22 37 26 22 56 56 62 44 25 4 -4 200 MB DIV 74 59 34 48 35 19 1 1 4 7 -15 2 -7 LAND (KM) 59 100 124 82 62 67 34 -62 -22 32 0 10 182 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.4 19.8 20.1 20.3 20.5 20.6 20.6 21.0 21.4 22.1 22.9 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 65.8 67.0 68.1 69.2 70.3 72.5 74.4 76.4 78.1 79.9 81.8 83.5 85.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 69 63 62 67 54 81 30 75 103 105 35 0 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 20. 26. 31. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 14. 22. 29. 33. 42. 47. 54. 57. 59. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972010 INVEST 07/20/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 63.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972010 INVEST 07/20/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972010 INVEST 07/20/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)