* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972010 07/20/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 37 46 52 58 62 68 69 71 69 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 37 46 52 58 62 68 69 71 60 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 36 41 48 55 62 57 SHEAR (KT) 13 10 7 15 13 8 16 11 9 12 9 14 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 0 4 8 8 3 2 -1 0 -1 1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 282 296 286 253 283 259 252 219 203 116 86 64 39 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.9 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 149 148 148 153 158 159 159 161 165 167 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 143 139 138 137 140 143 143 143 145 148 147 144 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 65 64 64 64 59 60 54 54 47 54 48 55 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 9 10 12 13 16 14 15 13 13 9 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 13 20 36 30 16 62 56 79 46 48 3 -5 -36 200 MB DIV 67 48 64 59 35 78 16 63 6 15 25 13 5 LAND (KM) 60 94 144 100 80 122 144 123 138 163 200 37 13 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.4 19.8 20.1 20.4 20.9 21.2 21.7 22.3 23.3 24.2 25.1 25.7 LONG(DEG W) 65.6 66.7 67.8 68.8 69.7 71.5 73.1 74.6 75.7 77.2 78.6 80.1 81.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 55 63 60 65 61 77 85 74 66 63 21 56 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 395 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 20. 25. 30. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 5. 5. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 21. 27. 33. 37. 43. 44. 46. 44. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972010 INVEST 07/20/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 60.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972010 INVEST 07/20/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972010 INVEST 07/20/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)