* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972010 07/20/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 47 56 62 68 73 76 77 78 76 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 47 56 62 68 73 76 77 49 51 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 37 40 45 51 57 65 74 83 53 62 SHEAR (KT) 17 6 2 10 6 11 6 12 10 10 13 6 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 9 5 -2 7 3 1 -4 0 -2 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 294 287 203 304 298 214 238 152 111 84 72 81 38 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.6 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 149 148 148 150 155 157 161 164 165 162 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 135 136 136 137 138 143 146 147 148 148 144 139 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -52.5 -52.6 -51.7 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 12 10 700-500 MB RH 66 66 64 62 65 63 61 59 54 50 53 49 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 10 11 11 12 15 14 14 12 10 10 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR 16 32 42 43 57 84 59 63 46 32 12 -13 -37 200 MB DIV 50 68 83 59 55 46 27 20 -1 5 17 2 1 LAND (KM) 59 66 77 118 83 93 171 209 229 225 34 -18 79 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.1 19.2 19.5 19.8 20.6 21.4 22.4 23.5 24.6 25.4 26.5 27.7 LONG(DEG W) 65.8 66.4 67.0 67.8 68.6 70.5 72.2 74.2 76.3 78.3 80.0 81.8 83.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 11 11 10 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 69 67 65 61 64 73 74 51 42 2 18 1 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 427 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 26. 32. 38. 43. 46. 47. 48. 46. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972010 INVEST 07/20/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 65.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972010 INVEST 07/20/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972010 INVEST 07/20/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)