* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972010 07/20/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 48 55 61 64 67 68 69 68 68 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 48 55 61 64 54 53 54 53 41 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 37 39 44 49 54 49 50 56 62 52 SHEAR (KT) 15 12 15 9 5 18 11 18 18 11 18 10 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 5 2 -1 0 2 -1 -2 -2 0 -2 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 302 256 261 235 200 227 193 165 132 117 114 132 167 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.8 29.8 29.5 29.4 29.7 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 148 153 155 159 161 166 166 159 158 164 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 138 138 142 144 149 151 152 148 139 138 144 141 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -53.4 -53.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 10 12 700-500 MB RH 65 65 63 60 61 57 53 49 51 46 51 49 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 11 13 12 13 14 14 12 11 9 8 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 37 47 41 40 52 43 37 10 7 -17 -1 -35 22 200 MB DIV 48 71 55 45 76 7 10 10 -14 24 23 -16 15 LAND (KM) 91 66 64 105 157 181 214 160 -37 29 108 45 -83 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.9 20.3 20.8 21.2 22.1 23.5 24.8 25.8 26.8 27.8 29.3 31.2 LONG(DEG W) 68.2 69.2 70.1 71.1 72.0 74.1 76.6 78.9 81.0 82.7 83.9 85.5 87.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 12 13 11 10 8 9 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 62 65 64 77 75 67 71 72 36 7 16 22 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 24. 28. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 18. 25. 31. 34. 37. 38. 39. 38. 38. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972010 INVEST 07/20/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 68.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972010 INVEST 07/20/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972010 INVEST 07/20/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)