* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972010 07/21/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 47 54 59 63 66 69 67 69 69 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 47 54 59 63 59 63 62 63 63 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 35 38 42 47 53 55 61 66 71 SHEAR (KT) 14 17 8 12 17 14 16 12 15 18 16 8 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 2 0 4 3 0 1 -4 0 -4 1 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 251 260 253 250 226 203 152 111 113 104 144 137 123 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.8 29.9 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 152 155 157 160 160 166 169 161 162 160 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 139 142 144 145 148 147 152 154 144 144 138 140 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.0 -52.0 -51.5 -52.0 -51.6 -51.9 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 12 9 13 700-500 MB RH 65 64 60 61 64 57 54 50 48 49 47 53 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 11 11 14 14 14 13 10 10 9 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 42 34 39 61 70 48 54 32 23 1 -29 -38 -11 200 MB DIV 77 62 63 98 74 16 7 -7 -6 13 -2 0 -21 LAND (KM) 91 54 69 105 133 143 171 197 -9 82 234 204 59 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.1 20.4 20.8 21.1 21.9 23.0 24.1 25.3 26.4 27.6 28.5 29.4 LONG(DEG W) 68.5 69.6 70.7 71.7 72.7 74.6 76.5 78.5 80.7 83.0 85.2 87.0 88.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 11 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 62 67 58 77 83 73 3 3 8 15 31 41 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 475 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 24. 28. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 24. 29. 33. 36. 39. 37. 39. 39. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972010 INVEST 07/21/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 69.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972010 INVEST 07/21/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972010 INVEST 07/21/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)