* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972010 07/21/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 48 53 57 58 58 56 55 54 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 48 53 57 39 40 33 29 28 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 33 34 36 40 44 34 38 37 31 28 SHEAR (KT) 17 10 10 13 14 11 15 19 16 23 21 19 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 2 6 3 1 -5 1 -1 0 0 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 256 251 242 202 214 142 100 112 120 132 159 154 117 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.5 29.8 29.4 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 152 154 155 157 163 160 156 161 165 157 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 141 143 143 144 145 149 146 140 142 142 131 120 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 9 9 10 10 11 11 9 12 8 700-500 MB RH 65 62 63 60 57 59 49 55 46 55 49 51 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 14 14 14 12 11 7 6 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 37 53 55 39 50 3 13 -38 -60 -96 -34 -51 200 MB DIV 72 71 93 83 30 15 8 -11 -2 23 -17 -1 -7 LAND (KM) 114 101 146 205 255 300 342 84 -63 85 -9 -96 -177 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.6 21.1 21.7 22.2 23.6 25.0 26.4 27.7 29.2 30.5 31.5 32.1 LONG(DEG W) 68.4 69.6 70.7 71.8 72.8 74.8 76.9 79.3 81.8 84.2 86.1 87.6 88.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 12 12 11 11 12 12 13 13 12 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 61 56 77 28 70 33 83 61 14 7 5 18 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 422 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 24. 28. 30. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 23. 27. 28. 28. 26. 25. 24. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972010 INVEST 07/21/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 58.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972010 INVEST 07/21/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972010 INVEST 07/21/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)