* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972010 07/21/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 36 39 44 49 52 54 56 58 62 62 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 36 39 44 49 45 49 51 54 57 57 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 33 36 40 39 44 47 52 58 67 SHEAR (KT) 16 13 12 15 9 13 20 27 25 18 7 4 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 3 1 -2 1 1 -1 -3 -2 -4 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 274 236 210 246 189 137 92 106 94 122 67 112 28 SST (C) 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.8 29.9 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 154 157 159 159 161 166 168 163 162 160 161 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 145 148 148 148 148 152 152 146 143 139 139 140 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 10 10 12 11 13 10 14 10 700-500 MB RH 66 68 65 59 62 56 52 48 45 46 49 47 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 13 12 13 12 10 9 6 4 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 50 58 48 50 36 12 10 -24 -38 -43 -29 -37 200 MB DIV 63 72 73 26 17 -18 -12 -10 2 13 23 -12 -5 LAND (KM) 32 77 129 177 163 196 207 -19 106 252 271 138 104 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.5 21.0 21.5 22.0 23.2 24.4 25.4 26.2 27.0 27.5 27.9 28.2 LONG(DEG W) 70.0 71.1 72.2 73.3 74.3 76.4 78.6 80.7 83.1 85.2 87.2 88.9 90.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 71 75 79 83 73 30 18 4 23 39 31 37 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 20. 24. 29. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 9. 14. 19. 22. 24. 26. 28. 32. 32. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972010 INVEST 07/21/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 76.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972010 INVEST 07/21/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972010 INVEST 07/21/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)