* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972010 07/21/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 40 45 47 50 51 54 56 58 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 40 45 45 48 49 44 34 29 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 32 34 37 39 42 46 44 33 29 SHEAR (KT) 21 19 16 15 17 13 20 14 19 13 16 17 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 3 5 -3 -2 -1 0 4 -1 1 -1 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 250 227 223 178 172 139 121 127 139 220 186 231 232 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.7 29.9 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.8 29.2 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 159 159 159 165 169 163 163 161 165 154 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 144 148 148 148 152 155 149 146 141 142 130 109 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 9 12 700-500 MB RH 64 63 60 59 57 49 51 44 49 48 54 52 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 12 10 10 10 8 8 5 5 2 1 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 44 38 38 41 16 6 -29 -39 -77 -53 -70 -18 200 MB DIV 56 58 6 5 -1 -25 2 15 18 8 -18 16 8 LAND (KM) 166 189 190 181 199 200 4 96 235 142 -27 -116 -240 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.6 21.9 22.4 22.9 24.0 25.2 26.4 27.6 28.7 29.8 30.8 31.9 LONG(DEG W) 71.4 72.5 73.6 74.7 75.8 78.1 80.6 83.2 85.7 87.9 89.9 91.3 92.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 12 12 13 13 12 11 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 41 74 78 70 62 3 15 21 32 45 28 25 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):297/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 20. 25. 29. 31. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -7. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 15. 17. 20. 21. 24. 26. 28. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972010 INVEST 07/21/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 65.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972010 INVEST 07/21/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972010 INVEST 07/21/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)