* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972010 07/22/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 35 39 42 45 47 49 52 55 55 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 33 35 39 42 45 47 49 42 33 29 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 31 31 33 36 39 42 46 40 32 28 SHEAR (KT) 25 21 19 17 17 17 15 21 15 12 18 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 0 -2 1 -3 4 -1 5 0 1 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 231 236 192 186 183 121 138 115 184 223 196 195 210 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.0 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 161 161 161 163 169 167 165 161 164 164 152 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 150 149 149 152 157 154 150 144 145 142 130 102 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.3 -52.2 -51.6 -51.9 -51.5 -52.2 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 10 11 10 12 9 13 8 14 700-500 MB RH 64 60 58 58 56 51 50 51 51 55 55 56 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 10 10 10 9 7 6 4 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 35 26 34 30 6 -7 -29 -55 -57 -55 -67 -54 200 MB DIV 66 27 20 11 -40 7 -12 -2 23 3 -12 -11 9 LAND (KM) 166 146 112 125 110 116 107 250 264 69 -4 -111 -289 LAT (DEG N) 21.4 21.7 21.9 22.4 22.8 23.9 25.1 26.3 27.5 28.5 29.6 30.8 32.3 LONG(DEG W) 72.8 74.0 75.1 76.2 77.3 79.8 82.3 84.9 87.3 89.5 91.4 93.2 94.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 12 13 13 13 12 11 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 80 81 73 63 62 69 6 65 24 44 1 25 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 20. 25. 29. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 17. 19. 22. 25. 25. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972010 INVEST 07/22/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 71.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972010 INVEST 07/22/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972010 INVEST 07/22/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)