* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982010 07/22/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 29 33 41 51 58 63 64 64 64 62 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 29 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 23 25 26 27 27 27 27 31 34 SHEAR (KT) 6 12 8 8 4 8 11 6 10 20 19 9 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -2 -1 1 0 4 7 6 0 -4 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 299 348 28 48 339 18 313 308 312 358 32 34 84 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.7 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 150 152 152 153 154 156 159 155 150 145 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 140 139 140 140 140 140 141 142 138 131 127 115 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -51.3 -52.1 -51.0 -52.0 -51.2 -51.7 -50.7 -51.7 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 8 12 14 10 14 8 11 6 8 3 6 700-500 MB RH 79 79 80 76 74 74 74 74 76 74 72 70 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 8 8 7 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 82 83 76 65 67 60 73 50 44 28 19 21 27 200 MB DIV 43 28 33 26 54 49 72 49 52 8 -1 -30 6 LAND (KM) 197 214 139 63 -23 -173 -361 -243 -116 -51 -14 52 92 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.6 20.9 21.2 21.4 21.9 22.2 22.5 23.0 23.6 24.2 24.5 25.0 LONG(DEG W) 93.5 94.6 95.6 96.6 97.6 99.5 101.4 103.2 104.7 106.1 107.2 108.4 109.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 33 40 44 47 43 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 20. 26. 32. 35. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 13. 21. 31. 38. 43. 44. 44. 44. 42. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982010 INVEST 07/22/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982010 INVEST 07/22/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982010 INVEST 07/22/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)