* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972010 07/22/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 42 45 49 51 55 57 60 60 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 42 45 49 51 55 48 35 29 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 33 36 40 43 46 51 50 35 29 SHEAR (KT) 19 15 12 18 11 19 14 24 1 10 2 4 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 1 0 0 2 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 245 198 172 164 136 119 97 124 312 131 269 168 333 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 28.4 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 163 165 167 169 165 163 163 164 166 142 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 151 152 154 157 157 151 147 145 143 143 121 98 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 10 11 11 12 10 11 10 12 10 700-500 MB RH 61 58 57 55 53 52 45 49 50 53 56 57 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 12 12 11 11 8 9 6 5 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 28 36 30 23 12 -21 -35 -69 -59 -80 -67 -54 200 MB DIV 24 19 9 -37 -14 -7 -4 6 9 -9 1 19 10 LAND (KM) 113 84 82 66 71 100 195 353 178 33 -30 -162 -331 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.6 21.9 22.4 22.9 24.2 25.4 26.6 27.7 28.9 29.9 31.2 32.6 LONG(DEG W) 74.0 75.1 76.2 77.4 78.6 81.1 83.6 86.2 88.4 90.5 92.3 94.0 95.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 13 13 13 12 11 10 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 87 76 71 65 74 78 39 52 32 6 31 19 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 25. 29. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 15. 19. 21. 25. 27. 30. 30. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972010 INVEST 07/22/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 74.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972010 INVEST 07/22/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972010 INVEST 07/22/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)