* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982010 07/22/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 42 51 58 64 67 68 67 64 60 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 33 30 28 27 27 27 30 30 26 23 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 29 27 27 27 27 32 36 38 40 SHEAR (KT) 11 10 8 6 15 7 8 7 15 15 15 16 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 2 1 2 0 4 5 4 0 0 4 -1 SHEAR DIR 335 29 48 11 19 3 354 316 4 5 30 47 80 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.5 28.9 28.3 27.3 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 152 152 152 155 156 159 159 148 139 126 109 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 140 141 141 140 142 142 144 142 131 122 110 96 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.1 -51.3 -51.9 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 12 14 11 12 10 11 6 7 5 4 2 700-500 MB RH 79 79 77 75 76 74 78 76 72 71 68 67 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 8 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 73 70 71 79 57 72 44 38 18 23 20 33 200 MB DIV 34 41 31 58 66 60 58 57 16 17 5 -3 10 LAND (KM) 223 158 73 -11 -93 -287 -294 -137 -14 37 90 71 20 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.8 21.0 21.3 21.5 21.8 22.0 22.2 22.7 23.3 23.7 24.2 24.8 LONG(DEG W) 94.2 95.3 96.4 97.5 98.6 100.6 102.5 104.2 105.7 107.0 108.1 109.3 110.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 37 41 56 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 20. 25. 29. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 26. 33. 39. 42. 43. 42. 39. 35. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982010 INVEST 07/22/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982010 INVEST 07/22/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982010 INVEST 07/22/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)