* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * THREE AL032010 07/22/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 37 41 45 48 52 54 55 55 53 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 37 41 45 48 52 54 37 30 28 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 35 39 42 44 48 53 37 30 28 SHEAR (KT) 11 13 14 9 17 18 22 13 11 14 17 12 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 -1 -1 3 -1 1 -2 2 -4 5 0 SHEAR DIR 224 166 149 115 101 122 104 134 88 140 133 162 132 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.0 26.3 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 163 165 167 169 165 161 165 166 152 117 97 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 150 153 155 156 158 151 146 146 146 131 100 84 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -51.7 -52.1 -51.7 -52.3 -51.6 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 10 11 10 12 9 13 9 14 8 700-500 MB RH 61 59 60 54 52 52 51 55 56 53 58 58 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 12 11 12 10 8 5 5 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 39 36 28 22 -6 -27 -65 -81 -70 -82 -37 -33 200 MB DIV 17 13 -25 -15 -1 -17 -7 4 1 -6 -14 7 -18 LAND (KM) 118 120 122 109 117 78 249 273 80 14 -109 -332 -538 LAT (DEG N) 21.6 22.1 22.6 23.2 23.7 25.0 26.1 27.3 28.4 29.5 30.7 32.4 34.1 LONG(DEG W) 74.4 75.6 76.7 78.0 79.3 81.9 84.8 87.4 89.9 92.1 94.2 95.8 96.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 13 13 14 13 13 12 11 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 79 73 53 53 86 2 68 25 40 2 25 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 29. 32. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 22. 24. 25. 26. 23. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032010 THREE 07/22/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 68.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032010 THREE 07/22/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032010 THREE 07/22/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)