* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982010 07/22/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 43 50 56 61 64 65 65 65 63 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 31 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 28 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 37 SHEAR (KT) 13 11 10 16 11 13 13 15 23 11 15 15 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 2 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 27 59 30 9 27 318 337 308 353 8 24 64 64 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.4 29.1 29.3 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 152 152 153 154 155 157 160 157 151 155 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 139 140 140 141 140 140 140 142 138 132 136 130 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.7 -51.2 -51.6 -51.9 -50.9 -52.1 -51.0 -52.0 -50.9 -52.1 -51.7 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 14 11 10 13 8 10 6 10 5 8 3 700-500 MB RH 81 80 74 75 73 77 77 78 73 73 73 67 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 67 71 77 62 72 57 37 27 9 11 16 24 200 MB DIV 50 43 70 56 41 78 68 77 34 44 -39 49 10 LAND (KM) 191 118 43 -51 -128 -317 -291 -178 -84 -81 -36 0 35 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.0 21.3 21.5 21.6 21.8 21.9 22.3 22.9 23.7 24.2 24.8 25.4 LONG(DEG W) 94.9 95.9 96.9 98.0 99.0 100.9 102.5 103.8 105.0 105.8 106.9 108.0 109.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 42 47 14 39 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 18. 25. 31. 36. 39. 41. 40. 40. 39. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982010 INVEST 07/22/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982010 INVEST 07/22/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982010 INVEST 07/22/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)