* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * THREE AL032010 07/22/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 38 42 46 49 53 55 57 58 57 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 38 42 46 49 53 43 32 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 36 40 42 44 47 41 31 28 27 SHEAR (KT) 11 10 7 16 25 17 18 8 18 10 5 3 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -1 0 2 5 1 0 -1 -1 3 -4 SHEAR DIR 189 164 120 107 125 124 149 193 150 180 125 258 133 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.6 27.4 26.0 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 166 168 170 166 164 164 166 162 128 111 105 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 154 158 161 161 155 150 146 144 139 107 92 87 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.9 -51.6 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 11 11 11 10 12 10 11 9 12 700-500 MB RH 65 61 54 52 52 50 55 54 53 53 58 52 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 11 11 11 8 8 5 6 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 38 25 18 14 -15 -35 -73 -45 -74 -47 -60 -44 200 MB DIV 8 -19 -2 -12 3 10 18 14 0 13 22 0 -10 LAND (KM) 151 155 132 131 66 229 338 178 91 -51 -238 -353 -399 LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.8 23.3 23.9 24.5 25.6 26.5 27.5 28.7 30.2 31.9 32.9 33.3 LONG(DEG W) 74.9 76.4 77.8 79.5 81.1 84.2 87.5 90.0 91.7 92.9 93.9 94.3 94.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 14 15 16 16 15 14 11 9 9 7 4 2 HEAT CONTENT 76 39 50 51 76 59 46 40 12 30 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 25. 29. 31. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 23. 25. 27. 28. 27. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032010 THREE 07/22/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 58.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032010 THREE 07/22/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032010 THREE 07/22/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)