* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982010 07/22/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 40 46 51 57 59 60 61 60 57 V (KT) LAND 25 28 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 30 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 31 33 35 SHEAR (KT) 12 12 15 12 9 11 14 15 25 18 11 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 2 2 2 6 1 4 -2 -2 3 1 2 SHEAR DIR 45 29 17 24 1 345 332 357 18 42 37 49 21 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.4 29.0 28.8 27.8 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 152 153 153 154 157 161 157 149 146 132 110 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 141 140 142 141 140 142 144 139 129 127 116 96 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.1 -51.5 -51.9 -51.5 -51.1 -51.4 -51.3 -51.1 -51.3 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 13 10 9 12 9 10 7 8 6 6 3 2 700-500 MB RH 80 74 76 74 77 78 78 75 75 70 70 67 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 73 79 69 63 67 45 36 19 15 17 38 13 200 MB DIV 49 76 60 40 63 43 57 18 37 4 17 26 -3 LAND (KM) 110 26 -56 -146 -246 -346 -193 -82 -37 -14 45 92 23 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 20.9 21.1 21.2 21.3 21.6 22.0 22.6 23.4 24.0 24.2 24.4 24.9 LONG(DEG W) 95.8 96.9 97.9 99.0 100.1 101.9 103.5 104.9 106.1 107.0 108.0 109.2 110.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 6 5 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 49 17 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 20. 25. 29. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 21. 26. 32. 34. 35. 36. 35. 32. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982010 INVEST 07/22/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.5 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982010 INVEST 07/22/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982010 INVEST 07/22/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)