* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BONNIE AL032010 07/23/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 43 45 51 56 61 63 64 64 62 60 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 43 45 51 56 61 50 35 29 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 44 47 52 58 63 55 36 30 28 27 SHEAR (KT) 9 7 14 20 13 14 7 10 18 17 12 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 -2 -1 4 0 2 -1 0 -4 3 -6 0 SHEAR DIR 176 137 101 113 136 107 162 106 166 158 178 157 166 SST (C) 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.7 28.2 26.2 25.2 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 163 167 170 170 165 163 165 164 139 114 104 100 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 153 157 160 159 152 148 146 143 117 96 87 82 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -51.3 -51.7 -51.3 -51.6 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 12 10 12 8 13 8 14 8 15 700-500 MB RH 61 54 53 53 51 51 54 58 56 64 63 65 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 8 6 5 5 3 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 14 14 12 0 -13 -39 -52 -56 -66 -49 -98 -80 200 MB DIV -28 -31 -9 -4 -4 2 13 -4 -7 -9 47 -1 13 LAND (KM) 212 184 182 101 78 259 325 128 -19 -197 -371 -478 -522 LAT (DEG N) 23.1 23.6 24.0 24.4 24.8 25.9 26.7 28.0 29.8 31.5 33.1 34.1 34.6 LONG(DEG W) 75.9 77.3 78.6 80.2 81.8 84.8 87.4 89.7 91.5 92.5 92.7 92.7 92.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 14 15 15 13 12 12 11 8 7 4 2 HEAT CONTENT 51 70 21 87 26 70 40 47 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 465 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 23. 26. 27. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 16. 21. 26. 28. 29. 29. 27. 25. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032010 BONNIE 07/23/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032010 BONNIE 07/23/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032010 BONNIE 07/23/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)