* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BONNIE AL032010 07/23/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 43 49 53 57 60 60 60 58 56 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 43 49 53 50 37 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 40 43 45 50 54 59 38 30 28 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 8 14 24 14 11 14 4 15 12 20 11 15 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 0 3 2 2 2 -3 -1 -2 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 164 100 125 141 121 126 229 138 178 160 164 176 206 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.1 27.1 25.3 24.2 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 166 168 170 168 166 161 164 166 153 125 106 97 94 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 158 160 157 153 146 145 143 130 106 90 83 80 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 12 12 11 11 10 11 10 12 9 13 10 700-500 MB RH 53 50 50 48 49 54 53 56 57 59 59 57 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 12 10 9 9 6 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 5 0 -14 -26 -39 -73 -43 -83 -52 -67 -53 -111 200 MB DIV -48 -10 -1 -2 7 32 17 -6 0 25 32 11 11 LAND (KM) 185 153 37 96 192 329 122 -1 -101 -267 -435 -567 -647 LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.3 24.8 25.4 25.9 27.0 28.0 29.2 30.7 32.2 33.7 34.9 35.9 LONG(DEG W) 77.8 79.4 80.9 82.5 84.0 86.8 89.2 90.9 92.1 93.1 93.8 93.6 92.4 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 14 13 11 9 9 8 7 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 16 72 37 10 16 36 42 2 26 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 16 CX,CY: -13/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 25. 25. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 25. 25. 23. 21. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032010 BONNIE 07/23/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032010 BONNIE 07/23/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032010 BONNIE 07/23/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)