* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BONNIE AL032010 07/23/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 39 41 45 48 51 52 55 55 57 55 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 41 44 39 31 28 27 27 27 28 V (KT) LGE mod 35 32 37 38 39 42 36 30 28 27 27 27 28 SHEAR (KT) 18 28 18 15 19 17 13 20 12 11 7 10 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 3 2 1 7 1 -2 0 -2 -4 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 113 130 153 134 134 193 150 172 165 169 121 257 296 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.8 28.9 26.8 25.0 23.7 22.6 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 166 164 164 163 166 150 121 104 95 89 85 ADJ. POT. INT. 163 159 154 152 150 144 143 128 103 88 81 77 75 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -52.2 -51.9 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 12 12 11 9 11 7 13 8 14 6 17 7 700-500 MB RH 51 51 46 46 52 55 60 56 61 65 61 56 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 9 8 9 6 5 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -4 -16 -35 -48 -74 -78 -46 -60 -49 -75 -53 -58 200 MB DIV -10 -3 -18 -2 8 27 10 -3 14 30 8 1 10 LAND (KM) 89 6 104 187 280 118 -36 -134 -316 -477 -633 -761 -884 LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.3 25.8 26.5 27.2 28.5 29.6 31.0 32.6 34.1 35.5 36.9 38.3 LONG(DEG W) 79.7 81.3 82.8 84.3 85.8 88.3 90.2 91.7 92.7 93.2 93.2 92.7 91.3 STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 15 15 14 11 10 9 9 7 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 90 1 17 38 37 43 27 23 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 17 CX,CY: -14/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 19. 21. 22. 22. 21. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 16. 17. 20. 20. 22. 20. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032010 BONNIE 07/23/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032010 BONNIE 07/23/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032010 BONNIE 07/23/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)