* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BONNIE AL032010 07/23/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 35 37 40 41 42 43 45 46 47 V (KT) LAND 30 33 33 35 37 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 28 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 32 33 33 35 29 27 27 27 27 27 28 SHEAR (KT) 24 18 17 21 24 15 23 17 24 15 17 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -1 0 3 1 2 -2 0 -4 -2 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 123 142 123 132 143 175 161 158 155 170 190 272 284 SST (C) 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.8 28.6 26.9 25.4 24.2 23.2 22.6 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 168 164 164 164 162 166 145 122 107 98 92 89 91 ADJ. POT. INT. 159 152 150 149 145 146 123 102 90 83 79 78 79 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.6 -52.6 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 10 9 11 7 10 8 11 9 13 10 14 700-500 MB RH 52 47 47 52 54 55 60 60 62 63 59 58 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 8 7 7 8 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -30 -47 -56 -59 -95 -31 -70 -47 -79 -59 -109 -77 200 MB DIV 0 -15 6 7 24 -1 -11 14 13 16 23 -14 -1 LAND (KM) -27 60 164 223 212 19 -140 -312 -445 -577 -695 -795 -915 LAT (DEG N) 25.8 26.4 27.0 27.7 28.4 30.0 31.4 32.6 33.8 35.0 36.3 37.5 38.9 LONG(DEG W) 81.1 82.7 84.2 85.6 87.0 89.2 91.0 92.2 93.0 93.3 92.6 91.2 89.0 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 14 14 13 11 9 7 6 7 7 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 36 9 27 34 41 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 18 CX,CY: -15/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 18. 21. 22. 22. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 13. 15. 16. 17. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032010 BONNIE 07/23/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032010 BONNIE 07/23/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032010 BONNIE 07/23/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)