* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BONNIE AL032010 07/24/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 32 35 38 40 43 46 48 50 47 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 SHEAR (KT) 16 23 27 24 19 23 15 23 11 14 16 17 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 3 2 2 3 0 -3 -2 -4 0 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 130 131 146 166 178 162 160 164 206 209 269 282 299 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.3 28.2 26.5 24.7 23.3 22.4 22.1 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 162 163 166 156 138 118 102 93 89 88 100 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 151 147 146 145 132 115 99 87 80 78 78 86 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 -51.5 -51.6 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 12 13 10 12 9 12 9 14 10 13 4 700-500 MB RH 47 50 54 52 51 55 57 59 64 56 50 49 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 6 3 2 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -53 -73 -66 -84 -101 -38 -55 -37 -79 -57 -83 -35 -79 200 MB DIV 6 9 26 3 -10 4 3 27 15 13 29 2 -22 LAND (KM) 190 260 216 73 -9 -101 -197 -334 -522 -684 -810 -954 -968 LAT (DEG N) 26.7 27.4 28.1 28.9 29.6 30.6 31.5 32.8 34.5 36.1 37.6 39.2 40.7 LONG(DEG W) 84.4 85.9 87.4 88.6 89.8 91.4 92.5 93.0 93.2 92.9 91.5 89.5 86.5 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 13 11 8 6 8 8 9 10 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 42 34 36 39 0 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 19. 20. 20. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 13. 16. 18. 20. 17. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032010 BONNIE 07/24/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032010 BONNIE 07/24/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032010 BONNIE 07/24/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)