* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BONNIE AL032010 07/24/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 24 25 29 31 35 38 44 46 47 42 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 24 23 26 26 27 27 27 28 29 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 20 24 26 26 27 27 27 28 29 30 SHEAR (KT) 23 27 21 17 17 22 19 15 4 6 4 34 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 1 1 0 0 -2 -3 -4 0 0 8 1 SHEAR DIR 132 149 171 185 169 158 134 167 158 225 308 269 289 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.6 28.0 26.2 24.7 23.2 22.0 21.2 21.5 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 164 161 163 165 162 136 114 102 92 86 83 86 97 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 145 145 144 140 115 96 87 80 76 74 76 83 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.4 -52.1 -51.9 -52.8 -52.9 -53.6 -52.6 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 12 13 10 8 13 7 15 7 18 5 13 1 700-500 MB RH 53 56 55 56 57 60 62 62 55 47 53 42 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -66 -61 -77 -86 -72 -34 -55 -33 -72 -39 -8 -52 -82 200 MB DIV 3 23 16 -1 -1 2 -2 25 5 6 2 -30 -19 LAND (KM) 240 216 71 2 -36 -211 -356 -511 -689 -830 -961 -999 -947 LAT (DEG N) 27.6 28.3 28.9 29.6 30.3 31.7 33.0 34.4 36.0 37.5 39.0 40.6 42.1 LONG(DEG W) 86.0 87.3 88.6 89.7 90.7 92.1 93.1 93.5 93.5 92.9 91.3 89.0 85.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 11 10 9 7 8 8 9 11 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 33 39 39 1 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 16. 18. 20. 20. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 8. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 0. 0. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. 4. 6. 10. 13. 19. 21. 22. 17. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032010 BONNIE 07/24/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032010 BONNIE 07/24/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032010 BONNIE 07/24/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)