* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992010 07/25/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 30 33 39 45 50 55 58 60 60 59 V (KT) LAND 20 23 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 30 28 V (KT) LGE mod 20 23 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 30 33 SHEAR (KT) 15 17 17 18 18 17 18 11 6 7 5 7 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -4 -1 1 0 -2 0 3 0 3 0 3 SHEAR DIR 359 353 359 359 356 350 345 6 28 109 43 119 24 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.7 29.3 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 152 152 152 154 156 157 157 155 163 155 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 135 136 136 135 137 139 140 138 136 143 135 109 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.9 -51.2 -51.6 -52.0 -51.2 -52.2 -51.3 -51.8 -51.2 -51.6 -51.3 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 13 14 12 10 13 8 11 6 9 4 5 1 700-500 MB RH 68 69 69 71 73 75 75 75 76 70 71 67 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -15 -6 13 7 10 18 32 25 32 15 8 -5 200 MB DIV 16 33 53 55 28 66 18 31 19 37 -12 21 6 LAND (KM) -35 -85 -121 -181 -244 -359 -302 -203 -148 -96 -24 41 47 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.3 21.5 21.7 21.9 22.4 23.0 23.7 24.3 24.9 25.5 26.2 26.6 LONG(DEG W) 97.6 98.3 98.9 99.6 100.2 101.4 102.8 104.2 105.5 106.8 108.2 109.7 111.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 45 40 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 20. 26. 31. 34. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 19. 25. 30. 35. 38. 40. 40. 39. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992010 INVEST 07/25/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992010 INVEST 07/25/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992010 INVEST 07/25/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)