* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992010 07/25/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 31 34 41 47 53 57 60 60 59 57 V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 30 29 25 V (KT) LGE mod 20 23 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 33 36 38 SHEAR (KT) 17 16 18 18 19 15 15 8 9 7 8 6 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -1 1 0 -1 0 1 0 -1 4 0 1 SHEAR DIR 353 3 359 359 357 355 354 45 60 122 87 76 66 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.1 27.7 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 149 152 152 151 153 155 157 159 155 152 152 131 111 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 136 135 135 137 139 141 141 137 134 133 114 96 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.3 -51.6 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -51.8 -51.6 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 13 14 12 10 12 10 10 7 8 5 5 2 2 700-500 MB RH 69 68 71 73 75 77 75 76 73 70 67 68 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -6 13 8 6 24 26 35 24 25 1 6 -10 200 MB DIV 32 51 54 26 30 51 17 33 15 21 -13 1 30 LAND (KM) -93 -131 -188 -247 -305 -329 -217 -119 -66 -14 51 80 0 LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.4 21.6 21.8 21.9 22.2 22.8 23.3 23.9 24.5 25.1 25.6 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 98.3 99.0 99.6 100.2 100.8 102.2 103.6 104.9 106.2 107.5 109.0 110.2 111.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 7 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 20. 26. 31. 34. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 21. 27. 33. 37. 40. 40. 39. 37. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992010 INVEST 07/25/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992010 INVEST 07/25/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992010 INVEST 07/25/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)