* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TEST AL802010 07/28/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 33 37 43 46 49 50 52 52 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 33 37 43 46 49 50 52 52 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 29 32 34 37 41 45 49 53 SHEAR (KT) 9 8 7 6 5 6 8 9 8 11 8 14 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 -3 -2 -1 -1 -1 -4 2 -2 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 156 189 212 223 239 255 243 228 263 219 233 249 267 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 135 137 136 141 145 150 151 152 150 147 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 133 134 135 134 139 142 148 150 150 148 144 140 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 56 53 54 51 51 52 45 44 46 43 44 46 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 57 49 41 34 35 26 28 31 12 -2 -5 -15 200 MB DIV 6 19 24 24 15 32 11 10 19 22 -11 7 14 LAND (KM) 1611 1523 1447 1374 1299 1189 1108 986 775 680 458 148 100 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.5 17.3 18.4 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 40.1 41.5 42.8 44.2 45.5 48.1 50.6 53.2 55.9 58.7 61.5 64.3 67.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 13 13 13 12 13 13 14 14 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 23 25 29 32 32 41 74 79 85 68 46 59 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 1.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 25. 29. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 12. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -15. -17. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 12. 18. 21. 24. 25. 27. 27. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL802010 TEST 07/28/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL802010 TEST 07/28/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL802010 TEST 07/28/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)