* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 07/29/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 32 43 54 64 72 78 80 81 81 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 32 43 54 64 72 78 80 81 81 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 27 33 40 49 59 69 77 83 86 SHEAR (KT) 5 9 8 8 11 9 12 10 7 8 5 10 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 3 5 2 0 0 -2 -1 -2 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 73 69 59 74 85 94 131 173 153 198 215 259 281 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 148 150 152 154 151 147 146 147 147 145 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 145 147 149 152 154 152 148 149 151 154 150 156 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 10 700-500 MB RH 60 60 64 67 69 69 72 75 74 77 74 74 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 9 8 11 16 23 36 57 58 60 46 41 36 200 MB DIV 35 33 51 37 50 70 64 80 70 55 40 39 58 LAND (KM) 1500 1563 1592 1573 1549 1525 1504 1479 1450 1258 1060 930 884 LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.7 8.8 9.3 9.8 10.1 10.3 10.5 11.1 12.0 13.2 LONG(DEG W) 30.0 30.6 31.2 31.8 32.4 33.7 35.3 37.1 39.3 41.8 44.8 47.9 51.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 6 6 6 7 7 9 10 12 13 16 16 18 HEAT CONTENT 34 39 46 47 48 49 45 30 37 38 53 59 67 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 356 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 22. 28. 33. 38. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 23. 34. 44. 52. 58. 60. 61. 61. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 07/29/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902010 INVEST 07/29/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)