* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 07/30/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 30 40 51 60 69 77 83 89 91 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 30 40 51 60 69 77 83 89 91 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 31 38 46 54 64 75 89 101 SHEAR (KT) 12 10 8 9 7 10 12 11 9 7 11 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 -2 -6 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 59 59 70 86 73 106 161 167 140 92 79 23 32 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 153 155 155 154 150 147 148 148 148 145 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 151 153 154 155 155 151 149 151 152 153 149 151 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 61 64 64 69 71 72 76 76 77 76 77 75 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 5 6 7 15 23 36 50 61 66 58 51 33 200 MB DIV 36 48 35 66 80 55 80 84 80 63 61 66 68 LAND (KM) 1557 1530 1497 1483 1471 1458 1450 1441 1325 1107 966 876 902 LAT (DEG N) 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.5 8.7 9.2 9.7 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.8 11.8 13.3 LONG(DEG W) 31.3 31.9 32.5 33.1 33.6 34.9 36.6 38.6 40.8 43.3 45.8 48.5 51.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 6 6 6 6 8 9 10 12 12 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 49 50 50 52 50 50 36 39 35 53 55 56 66 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 365 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 22. 28. 34. 38. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 12. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 5. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 20. 31. 41. 49. 57. 63. 69. 71. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 07/30/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902010 INVEST 07/30/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)