* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972010 07/30/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 32 34 37 43 49 53 57 59 62 63 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 32 34 37 43 49 53 57 59 62 63 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 37 39 42 46 50 55 59 64 SHEAR (KT) 10 6 10 12 16 15 11 13 16 16 17 16 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 1 0 -1 -2 -5 -1 -4 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 57 75 90 112 127 113 94 82 77 74 85 72 84 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 143 143 142 143 145 147 149 151 151 148 146 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.1 -52.8 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 71 70 68 64 63 62 63 64 67 70 71 71 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 3 0 -3 -7 -15 -6 -6 -6 -21 -20 -28 -16 -12 200 MB DIV 40 47 33 0 -4 22 20 29 21 35 12 7 7 LAND (KM) 580 592 617 600 571 551 533 559 615 681 730 848 951 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.8 10.0 10.3 10.6 11.0 11.4 11.6 11.7 11.9 12.2 12.4 12.8 LONG(DEG W) 94.1 94.9 95.6 96.3 96.9 98.2 99.4 100.6 102.1 104.0 106.0 108.4 110.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 7 8 9 11 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 7 16 18 20 21 7 4 6 4 11 17 33 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 26. 30. 34. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 18. 24. 28. 32. 34. 37. 38. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972010 INVEST 07/30/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972010 INVEST 07/30/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY