* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 07/30/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 29 37 46 55 62 66 70 72 73 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 29 37 46 55 62 66 70 72 73 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 23 25 29 34 40 46 52 59 67 74 SHEAR (KT) 13 13 6 7 5 7 6 10 6 4 3 12 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 3 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 57 69 85 98 107 137 167 163 176 195 349 306 358 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 151 149 144 143 144 147 147 151 157 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 149 150 150 150 144 145 147 153 154 158 165 164 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 66 66 68 69 72 76 74 73 69 68 72 74 73 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 8 14 12 14 23 40 46 50 49 52 58 53 200 MB DIV 32 50 72 65 43 62 75 64 39 43 7 30 46 LAND (KM) 1602 1593 1587 1579 1576 1582 1567 1392 1126 918 760 736 558 LAT (DEG N) 8.9 9.2 9.5 9.8 10.1 10.8 11.1 11.2 11.0 11.1 11.5 12.3 13.4 LONG(DEG W) 31.7 32.3 32.9 33.6 34.3 36.1 38.3 40.8 43.8 46.9 50.2 53.4 56.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 9 10 12 13 15 16 16 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 45 44 44 43 43 26 28 34 51 57 60 77 93 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 21. 27. 33. 37. 41. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 17. 26. 35. 42. 46. 50. 52. 53. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 07/30/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902010 INVEST 07/30/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)