* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 07/30/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 26 33 42 51 58 62 66 70 72 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 26 33 42 51 58 62 66 70 72 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 24 27 32 36 41 47 55 63 71 SHEAR (KT) 12 8 7 5 7 5 7 5 3 3 7 17 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 0 -1 1 1 1 2 1 -3 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 85 101 109 110 126 165 151 177 147 251 321 333 336 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.3 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 151 151 148 144 143 146 148 149 152 159 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 149 151 152 149 145 146 151 155 157 159 165 160 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 64 65 67 70 71 78 75 75 68 68 70 70 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 16 14 13 17 28 35 52 49 51 56 57 49 200 MB DIV 42 65 62 37 42 80 66 57 17 25 19 38 88 LAND (KM) 1601 1594 1590 1578 1572 1560 1517 1258 1017 823 737 692 507 LAT (DEG N) 9.1 9.4 9.7 10.0 10.3 10.8 11.0 10.9 11.0 11.3 12.0 12.9 14.3 LONG(DEG W) 32.0 32.6 33.2 34.1 34.9 36.9 39.3 42.1 45.3 48.6 51.9 55.0 58.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 9 11 13 15 16 16 16 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 46 44 42 43 40 28 30 37 55 57 74 88 80 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 21. 28. 33. 38. 41. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 13. 22. 31. 38. 42. 46. 50. 52. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 07/30/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902010 INVEST 07/30/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)