* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972010 07/30/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 19 20 23 26 27 29 31 34 34 37 V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 19 20 23 26 27 29 31 34 34 37 V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 17 17 18 19 19 20 21 22 22 22 SHEAR (KT) 11 15 16 20 19 22 28 27 29 30 31 35 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -4 -1 -6 -4 -2 -4 -4 -4 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 75 86 94 83 89 72 60 66 68 77 68 65 55 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.2 27.2 26.6 25.9 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 143 143 142 141 140 139 137 137 131 124 130 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 71 68 66 66 63 61 62 63 58 57 56 56 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 7 8 7 6 6 7 7 8 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -14 -8 -16 -10 -16 -19 -28 -32 200 MB DIV 10 4 21 28 11 6 15 5 17 13 7 37 31 LAND (KM) 611 638 673 716 726 797 912 1045 1225 1377 1553 1770 1971 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.2 8.8 8.1 7.5 6.7 6.2 5.6 5.0 4.7 LONG(DEG W) 94.1 94.8 95.5 96.2 96.9 98.5 100.3 102.2 104.4 106.7 109.4 112.3 115.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 10 15 18 19 18 19 21 25 21 21 12 0 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 26. 31. 33. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. 22. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 6. 7. 9. 11. 14. 14. 17. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972010 INVEST 07/30/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972010 INVEST 07/30/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED