* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP922010 07/31/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 38 40 41 38 37 34 32 31 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 38 40 41 38 37 34 32 31 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 32 34 36 37 36 34 32 30 28 SHEAR (KT) 10 11 10 8 10 12 14 17 17 20 18 13 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -2 -4 -1 -2 0 -1 -2 -3 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 132 123 120 122 133 147 145 161 167 169 203 216 258 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.3 25.8 25.4 25.2 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 138 137 136 132 129 128 126 120 116 114 114 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 48 44 48 49 45 50 49 43 42 36 33 30 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -6 -1 7 4 9 18 25 29 38 59 64 60 200 MB DIV -15 7 37 44 42 23 22 32 53 26 34 13 0 LAND (KM) 1858 1776 1694 1619 1544 1391 1240 1083 910 737 582 440 323 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.0 11.1 11.3 11.5 12.1 12.8 13.6 14.4 15.2 15.9 16.4 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 140.0 140.8 141.6 142.3 143.0 144.3 145.5 146.7 148.1 149.5 150.8 152.2 153.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 25 25 25 23 21 19 18 12 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 22. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 13. 12. 9. 7. 6. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP922010 INVEST 07/31/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP922010 INVEST 07/31/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY