* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP922010 08/01/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 31 33 33 32 30 27 25 25 25 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 31 33 33 32 30 27 25 25 25 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 26 25 23 22 20 19 SHEAR (KT) 10 10 12 13 11 16 18 19 22 18 18 16 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -4 -3 -2 -4 -3 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 -7 SHEAR DIR 125 133 128 148 154 139 147 159 171 190 211 239 256 SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.6 26.4 26.1 25.8 25.5 25.2 25.1 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 136 135 132 128 126 123 120 117 114 113 114 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 49 48 51 47 50 52 49 47 39 36 32 29 24 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 3 10 7 12 15 16 23 26 31 49 54 59 41 200 MB DIV 34 39 42 17 27 47 33 24 21 21 18 5 8 LAND (KM) 1782 1698 1615 1538 1461 1312 1154 997 832 680 537 383 250 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.3 11.5 11.8 12.1 12.9 13.7 14.5 15.3 15.9 16.4 17.0 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 140.7 141.5 142.2 142.9 143.5 144.6 145.8 147.0 148.3 149.6 150.9 152.3 153.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 25 25 22 19 17 14 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 21. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 2. 0. 0. 0. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP922010 INVEST 08/01/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP922010 INVEST 08/01/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY