* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912010 08/01/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 31 37 50 64 74 78 82 85 83 82 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 31 37 50 64 74 78 82 85 83 82 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 26 32 40 51 60 67 72 74 72 SHEAR (KT) 13 12 12 8 11 7 2 2 6 10 15 17 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 -1 0 0 5 4 0 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 6 26 42 33 54 62 57 320 320 307 286 268 278 SST (C) 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.5 28.8 28.8 28.5 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 150 149 148 147 146 143 146 151 150 145 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 155 152 151 151 151 151 148 150 153 149 140 134 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -53.3 -52.5 -53.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 73 75 77 79 80 77 73 71 71 66 69 66 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 7 7 7 10 11 13 13 14 15 14 16 850 MB ENV VOR 26 28 26 26 23 21 20 5 2 -1 0 -16 -15 200 MB DIV 89 106 124 131 118 71 52 19 14 53 64 61 31 LAND (KM) 1434 1424 1422 1426 1439 1309 1151 1044 1011 989 861 728 524 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.3 9.5 9.8 10.0 10.6 11.5 12.7 14.0 15.6 17.0 18.6 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 35.0 35.9 36.8 37.8 38.8 41.3 44.0 47.1 50.2 53.3 56.2 58.8 61.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 10 12 13 15 16 17 16 15 14 12 HEAT CONTENT 48 45 40 41 36 36 46 47 64 79 84 60 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 22. 28. 34. 38. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 17. 30. 44. 54. 58. 62. 65. 63. 62. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912010 INVEST 08/01/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 113.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 66% is 5.2 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 48% is 5.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 27% is 5.7 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912010 INVEST 08/01/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)