* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP922010 08/01/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 27 28 28 27 25 26 28 28 32 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 27 28 28 27 25 26 28 28 32 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 22 21 21 21 SHEAR (KT) 16 16 12 14 14 18 22 22 19 15 10 0 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -4 -1 -1 0 0 0 -3 -3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 116 128 142 132 139 135 144 167 164 164 157 207 77 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.4 26.2 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 137 135 134 131 129 127 128 129 126 125 124 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.1 -53.0 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -53.3 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 3 4 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 51 52 52 51 52 53 47 42 42 40 40 38 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 0 1 6 6 9 13 26 30 42 40 42 31 35 200 MB DIV 37 46 37 28 35 29 16 7 13 13 17 -21 -10 LAND (KM) 1767 1695 1624 1554 1485 1345 1227 1092 970 861 750 663 594 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.0 11.1 11.4 11.6 12.4 13.0 13.6 13.9 13.9 14.0 13.9 13.8 LONG(DEG W) 141.0 141.7 142.4 143.0 143.6 144.6 145.5 146.6 147.8 149.2 150.7 152.2 153.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 25 25 23 22 20 18 17 12 12 14 5 5 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 22. 24. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. 1. 3. 3. 7. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP922010 INVEST 08/01/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP922010 INVEST 08/01/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY