* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912010 08/01/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 41 47 58 68 74 76 77 76 72 68 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 41 47 58 68 74 76 77 76 72 68 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 35 39 48 59 69 74 75 73 69 63 SHEAR (KT) 12 10 7 9 8 1 5 11 19 20 24 32 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 0 0 3 0 3 -2 0 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 38 48 72 62 53 8 288 287 293 274 261 264 266 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.3 28.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 144 143 142 141 141 145 148 147 142 141 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 146 145 145 145 145 144 148 149 144 135 131 129 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 73 77 76 73 72 71 66 62 60 59 63 61 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 9 12 13 13 13 14 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 40 40 39 36 31 27 21 11 -8 -18 -39 -45 -41 200 MB DIV 95 99 105 90 51 39 -1 13 10 43 63 32 31 LAND (KM) 1491 1503 1524 1510 1423 1277 1172 1155 1092 1012 786 652 622 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.4 10.7 11.1 11.4 12.4 13.7 15.2 16.7 18.4 19.9 21.4 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 36.3 37.3 38.2 39.4 40.6 43.3 46.5 49.7 52.9 55.8 58.4 60.4 62.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 13 15 17 17 17 15 13 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 34 32 29 29 32 30 41 63 66 58 48 30 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 20. 26. 31. 34. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 4. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 16. 22. 33. 43. 49. 51. 52. 51. 47. 43. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912010 INVEST 08/01/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 65% is 5.1 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 52% is 6.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 34% is 7.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912010 INVEST 08/01/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912010 INVEST 08/01/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)