* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP922010 08/01/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 29 27 25 25 28 30 34 34 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 29 27 25 25 28 30 34 34 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 21 21 21 23 25 SHEAR (KT) 17 16 16 18 17 20 25 22 17 18 18 19 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -1 -1 3 3 2 0 -2 -3 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 132 140 139 137 151 151 162 167 141 112 101 107 115 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 137 135 134 132 132 133 136 138 140 140 142 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 55 52 49 55 56 51 48 43 46 47 53 53 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -2 2 8 9 16 34 32 35 20 16 15 -1 200 MB DIV 35 21 18 30 49 47 25 15 22 18 20 0 -20 LAND (KM) 1696 1621 1546 1477 1409 1273 1163 1071 1010 954 949 987 1080 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.0 11.1 11.4 11.6 12.1 12.4 12.5 12.1 11.6 10.9 10.1 9.2 LONG(DEG W) 141.8 142.6 143.3 143.9 144.5 145.7 146.8 147.9 149.3 150.9 152.5 154.3 156.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 6 6 6 5 6 8 8 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 25 24 23 22 23 25 24 23 32 36 34 34 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 0. 0. 3. 5. 9. 9. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP922010 INVEST 08/01/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP922010 INVEST 08/01/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY