* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912010 08/01/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 40 46 57 67 72 75 74 71 69 66 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 40 46 57 67 72 75 74 71 69 66 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 35 39 48 58 67 70 69 66 62 58 SHEAR (KT) 11 9 9 8 7 4 2 15 13 21 28 36 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 -3 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 -2 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 38 59 63 50 57 283 320 283 284 260 249 255 232 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.2 28.4 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 146 144 143 142 141 147 146 146 141 143 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 150 149 148 147 147 145 149 146 141 133 132 128 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -52.4 -53.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.0 -52.1 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 10 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 77 79 78 75 72 69 64 60 60 59 61 60 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 8 9 11 13 12 14 14 13 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 36 35 32 30 26 21 11 -2 -16 -25 -34 -30 -39 200 MB DIV 114 112 92 68 67 35 19 19 48 34 42 46 47 LAND (KM) 1469 1479 1499 1480 1394 1253 1181 1192 1090 963 758 653 675 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.2 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.7 14.3 15.9 17.7 19.3 20.9 22.3 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 36.3 37.4 38.4 39.7 41.0 44.0 47.3 50.6 53.8 56.6 59.0 61.1 62.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 12 14 15 17 18 18 17 15 13 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 37 34 30 31 33 33 40 73 69 59 33 43 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 21. 26. 31. 34. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 21. 32. 42. 47. 50. 49. 46. 44. 41. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912010 INVEST 08/01/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 66% is 5.2 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 54% is 6.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 36% is 7.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912010 INVEST 08/01/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912010 INVEST 08/01/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)