* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912010 08/02/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 48 56 64 68 70 69 65 65 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 48 56 64 68 70 69 65 65 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 30 32 39 47 54 59 61 60 57 54 SHEAR (KT) 13 11 14 12 4 7 9 13 18 21 26 22 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 0 2 1 1 -1 0 0 3 0 SHEAR DIR 52 53 46 50 71 346 295 295 272 273 267 290 270 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 145 144 143 142 145 148 147 142 141 142 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 152 150 150 149 147 150 150 145 136 131 127 121 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 79 79 75 73 71 68 66 64 60 60 59 62 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 7 7 7 10 10 11 13 13 13 11 13 850 MB ENV VOR 29 25 18 13 14 15 12 0 -19 -37 -44 -57 -56 200 MB DIV 91 69 38 19 18 20 20 10 32 74 40 11 8 LAND (KM) 1473 1489 1431 1329 1243 1139 1114 1082 1009 801 714 730 802 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.5 10.8 11.3 11.8 13.1 14.7 16.4 18.3 20.1 22.0 23.5 24.8 LONG(DEG W) 37.4 38.8 40.1 41.6 43.1 46.2 49.5 52.8 55.7 58.3 60.1 61.4 62.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 14 14 16 16 17 18 17 16 14 11 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 35 31 34 34 33 44 57 67 58 48 33 39 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):289/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 26. 31. 34. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 23. 31. 39. 43. 45. 44. 41. 40. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912010 INVEST 08/02/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912010 INVEST 08/02/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912010 INVEST 08/02/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)