* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP922010 08/02/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 27 26 23 24 27 29 32 35 38 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 27 26 23 24 27 29 32 35 38 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 23 22 20 18 18 19 21 24 27 SHEAR (KT) 16 17 15 19 19 23 17 14 22 16 13 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 0 3 4 0 0 -4 -2 0 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 166 177 170 178 176 187 169 147 101 91 90 96 96 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.4 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 134 133 132 132 134 138 140 141 141 143 144 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 57 53 58 55 54 49 49 47 51 58 57 58 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 8 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 0 7 11 14 15 35 23 21 8 -4 -2 -3 -19 200 MB DIV 25 41 53 48 44 12 4 15 18 31 14 -4 7 LAND (KM) 1620 1543 1467 1399 1331 1226 1124 1056 987 979 1011 1097 1260 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.2 11.5 11.8 12.1 12.3 12.3 11.8 11.2 10.4 9.8 9.4 9.0 LONG(DEG W) 142.6 143.3 143.9 144.5 145.0 146.1 147.4 149.0 151.0 153.2 155.7 158.4 161.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 9 11 12 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 24 23 21 22 23 24 23 31 37 34 34 41 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP922010 INVEST 08/02/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP922010 INVEST 08/02/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY