* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912010 08/02/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 34 37 45 53 60 62 63 61 59 56 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 34 37 45 53 60 62 63 61 59 56 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 39 44 49 51 52 51 48 46 SHEAR (KT) 11 12 5 2 5 10 12 13 17 27 30 28 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 3 3 2 1 0 1 1 2 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 61 60 50 347 281 297 281 268 273 272 277 277 282 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 142 141 141 143 148 148 144 142 142 140 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 148 147 146 147 147 152 148 139 132 129 125 122 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 76 70 67 64 62 63 62 59 58 58 61 63 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 9 10 10 10 11 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 30 21 15 14 13 7 -3 -16 -35 -50 -61 -55 -62 200 MB DIV 61 35 12 -6 2 28 17 44 38 43 18 20 25 LAND (KM) 1557 1510 1411 1322 1256 1174 1161 1006 808 630 573 573 599 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.6 13.2 14.7 16.2 17.9 19.4 21.0 22.2 23.1 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 38.2 39.7 41.2 42.9 44.6 48.2 51.8 55.2 58.1 60.4 62.1 63.5 64.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 16 17 18 18 19 19 17 14 12 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 27 29 31 28 34 40 72 64 57 29 49 35 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 21. 26. 30. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 5. 2. 0. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 12. 20. 28. 35. 37. 38. 36. 34. 31. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912010 INVEST 08/02/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912010 INVEST 08/02/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912010 INVEST 08/02/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)