* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP922010 08/02/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 24 22 21 23 25 27 31 34 35 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 24 22 21 23 25 27 31 34 35 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 23 21 19 19 19 20 22 25 28 SHEAR (KT) 18 18 20 17 19 20 17 14 13 5 6 6 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -3 1 3 1 0 -2 -4 -1 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 168 182 182 181 176 185 153 144 136 95 74 63 126 SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.7 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 137 134 133 132 131 131 132 134 132 130 130 131 132 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -54.0 -53.5 -53.7 -53.0 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 54 54 53 54 52 46 45 47 49 50 52 50 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 3 5 7 12 22 29 31 22 17 13 16 11 0 200 MB DIV 41 44 35 23 14 6 6 23 16 -13 -18 -15 16 LAND (KM) 1510 1439 1368 1298 1228 1101 993 900 795 735 700 742 856 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.4 11.7 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.1 12.9 12.8 12.6 12.6 12.5 12.4 LONG(DEG W) 143.8 144.4 144.9 145.4 145.9 147.1 148.3 149.9 151.7 153.5 155.5 157.6 159.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 25 24 24 24 22 21 21 27 24 18 16 18 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. 0. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -2. 0. 2. 6. 9. 10. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP922010 INVEST 08/02/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP922010 INVEST 08/02/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY