* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912010 08/02/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 41 44 51 57 61 62 61 59 57 54 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 41 44 51 57 61 62 61 59 57 54 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 40 43 49 53 55 56 54 52 50 49 SHEAR (KT) 8 5 3 7 12 14 17 23 28 28 30 28 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 2 3 0 0 0 1 2 -1 -6 -4 SHEAR DIR 42 46 158 246 268 269 282 250 265 276 281 275 305 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 140 139 140 147 150 149 146 147 146 144 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 144 144 143 144 150 150 144 137 134 130 127 129 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 8 9 10 10 12 11 11 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 67 64 60 61 58 58 56 56 58 58 62 58 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 11 12 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 33 28 22 17 14 9 -8 -37 -39 -48 -61 -64 -66 200 MB DIV 21 0 -3 3 2 12 44 50 30 17 7 8 11 LAND (KM) 1509 1418 1350 1285 1238 1233 1055 887 711 680 695 756 846 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.9 13.5 14.2 14.9 16.4 18.0 19.8 21.5 23.0 24.1 25.1 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 40.3 42.0 43.6 45.5 47.3 51.0 54.6 57.4 59.8 61.5 63.0 64.2 65.4 STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 18 19 19 19 17 15 13 10 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 27 27 29 30 38 70 65 58 31 46 37 39 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 20. 24. 28. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 21. 27. 31. 32. 31. 29. 27. 24. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912010 INVEST 08/02/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912010 INVEST 08/02/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912010 INVEST 08/02/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)