* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FOUR AL042010 08/02/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 44 51 57 59 58 56 56 57 58 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 44 51 57 59 58 56 56 57 58 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 43 49 54 56 55 51 48 48 50 SHEAR (KT) 5 3 6 9 8 14 17 33 30 32 18 17 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 0 -2 0 2 2 3 7 3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 64 141 258 276 308 269 252 253 275 292 283 303 308 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 140 142 141 146 148 152 150 147 146 148 150 149 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 153 151 157 158 158 149 140 136 136 134 127 121 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 9 10 11 12 11 11 11 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 65 60 61 61 59 57 57 60 63 60 59 58 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 6 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 32 28 28 28 23 -7 -35 -63 -92 -105 -97 -70 200 MB DIV 8 -2 4 -3 13 30 49 31 20 11 -4 14 15 LAND (KM) 1422 1311 1212 1151 1123 948 703 498 529 690 856 982 969 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.4 14.0 14.7 15.4 17.3 19.3 21.0 22.8 24.7 27.0 28.4 29.3 LONG(DEG W) 41.8 44.1 46.3 48.7 51.1 55.3 59.1 61.9 63.8 65.5 67.2 68.2 68.5 STM SPEED (KT) 18 23 23 24 23 21 18 14 13 13 11 7 4 HEAT CONTENT 26 29 38 43 74 73 49 47 33 38 29 18 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 29. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 4. 1. -3. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 21. 27. 29. 28. 26. 26. 27. 28. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042010 FOUR 08/02/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042010 FOUR 08/02/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042010 FOUR 08/02/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)