* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FOUR AL042010 08/03/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 47 53 56 58 58 60 61 62 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 39 47 53 56 58 58 60 61 62 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 35 38 43 47 49 49 48 49 53 57 SHEAR (KT) 2 7 10 11 9 17 20 26 24 24 18 17 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 -1 0 -1 2 0 2 -1 1 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 44 306 298 314 306 281 260 279 277 300 281 336 343 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.9 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 144 149 151 153 148 148 148 148 149 151 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 147 153 162 160 156 147 143 139 133 131 132 128 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 10 10 11 12 11 11 11 12 11 11 700-500 MB RH 62 62 62 59 59 61 64 63 61 58 57 56 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 6 6 7 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 42 31 18 14 15 9 -18 -48 -74 -92 -82 -66 -58 200 MB DIV 10 1 0 11 30 31 36 22 5 6 -7 23 17 LAND (KM) 1307 1220 1159 1129 1037 884 603 450 566 669 801 954 756 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 14.0 14.5 15.3 16.1 17.7 19.5 21.6 23.6 25.4 26.8 28.3 29.9 LONG(DEG W) 44.1 46.1 48.1 50.6 53.1 56.9 60.1 63.2 66.0 67.8 68.5 69.6 70.9 STM SPEED (KT) 19 20 23 25 23 19 18 17 14 10 8 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 29 37 40 70 74 73 45 40 34 38 32 17 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 29. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 3. 1. -2. -2. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 17. 23. 26. 28. 28. 30. 31. 32. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042010 FOUR 08/03/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042010 FOUR 08/03/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042010 FOUR 08/03/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)