* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FOUR AL042010 08/03/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 44 47 55 59 62 60 61 60 60 57 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 44 47 55 59 62 60 61 60 60 57 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 44 47 53 59 60 59 56 56 58 60 SHEAR (KT) 7 10 11 7 12 13 23 22 27 19 26 18 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -1 0 0 4 5 6 0 0 1 -4 SHEAR DIR 309 300 315 317 287 265 259 267 278 289 313 3 5 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.0 28.8 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 146 150 151 152 146 147 148 148 151 149 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 149 154 158 158 154 143 141 136 132 133 130 122 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 10 700-500 MB RH 65 63 64 64 63 62 58 61 57 56 53 56 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 8 9 9 8 9 8 8 6 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 33 19 10 13 13 -2 -26 -50 -83 -87 -92 -51 -42 200 MB DIV -2 -23 -12 5 18 49 44 32 -1 -2 6 31 7 LAND (KM) 1192 1137 1107 1091 953 780 498 451 595 699 875 904 701 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.3 14.9 15.7 16.5 18.3 20.2 22.2 24.1 25.8 27.5 29.5 31.8 LONG(DEG W) 46.2 48.2 50.1 52.3 54.4 58.3 61.4 64.2 66.6 68.2 68.7 69.2 69.7 STM SPEED (KT) 20 20 21 22 21 19 17 16 13 10 9 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 39 41 67 75 76 69 46 30 35 34 25 9 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 19. 23. 26. 28. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -2. -3. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 12. 20. 24. 27. 25. 26. 25. 25. 22. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042010 FOUR 08/03/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 59.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042010 FOUR 08/03/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042010 FOUR 08/03/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)