* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * COLIN AL042010 08/03/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 45 48 55 59 62 61 61 62 62 62 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 45 48 55 59 62 61 61 62 62 62 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 44 47 54 57 57 55 54 55 58 62 SHEAR (KT) 9 12 11 15 13 16 23 28 26 18 23 16 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -3 -2 1 3 4 8 0 5 -4 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 290 314 314 305 289 256 268 262 282 271 341 359 360 SST (C) 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 143 148 151 152 154 148 148 147 149 150 149 146 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 156 159 160 159 148 143 137 135 131 129 124 119 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 10 10 11 12 12 13 12 12 11 10 9 700-500 MB RH 65 62 61 62 59 61 59 56 55 54 57 61 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 8 8 8 8 9 12 10 9 9 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR 21 11 14 15 13 -4 -37 -56 -90 -84 -61 -37 -26 200 MB DIV -25 -16 9 15 30 54 31 30 9 23 16 5 21 LAND (KM) 1090 1079 1053 929 858 587 423 523 634 789 984 867 705 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.8 15.6 16.5 17.3 19.2 21.3 23.2 25.0 26.7 28.5 29.9 31.3 LONG(DEG W) 48.5 50.6 52.6 54.7 56.7 60.2 63.2 65.7 67.6 68.6 68.8 69.3 70.1 STM SPEED (KT) 21 21 21 21 20 18 16 14 11 9 8 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 43 69 75 78 78 50 42 34 39 32 14 10 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 0. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 20. 24. 27. 26. 26. 27. 27. 27. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042010 COLIN 08/03/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 68.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042010 COLIN 08/03/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042010 COLIN 08/03/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)