* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP862010 08/03/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 41 53 53 54 54 53 59 59 66 63 62 59 58 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -4 -4 -3 0 -5 -2 -9 -7 -6 -9 -10 SHEAR DIR 216 215 215 214 216 224 239 246 250 248 254 263 266 SST (C) 24.7 24.7 24.8 25.0 25.1 25.3 25.5 25.6 25.8 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 109 110 110 112 114 116 118 119 121 122 123 124 125 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -53.5 -53.9 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 16 15 14 12 12 11 14 16 19 20 22 24 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 36 33 32 31 26 23 13 0 -31 -44 -53 -46 200 MB DIV 27 35 34 26 18 16 11 -3 -4 -13 1 -12 -9 LAND (KM) 723 628 540 468 405 320 289 332 376 444 547 618 667 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.9 20.3 20.7 21.1 22.1 23.2 24.3 25.3 26.2 27.1 27.6 27.8 LONG(DEG W) 147.9 148.8 149.7 150.5 151.3 153.1 154.8 156.4 157.8 159.1 160.2 161.1 162.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 9 8 9 10 9 8 8 7 6 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 1. -5. -14. -28. -44. -58. -69. -75. -80. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -15. -16. -17. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -2. -10. -19. -30. -42. -51. -57. -60. -60. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP862010 INVEST 08/03/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 51.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 47.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP862010 INVEST 08/03/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY